Opinion | The Checkup With Dr. Wen: Why the uptick in covid cases isn’t cause for alarm

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Here we go again. In this fourth summer of covid-19, infections are once again on the rise. Emergency room visits and hospitalizations are also increasing.

While health officials should monitor these trends and vulnerable individuals should remain on guard, data suggest we are nowhere near the crisis of past covid surges. Most people do not need to change their behaviors or alter summer plans.

Because of widespread home testing and reduced tracking by health departments, coronavirus case numbers and test positivity are no longer reliable indicators of infection rates. The amount of virus in wastewater is probably the closest proxy. These numbers have been going up, though they remain a small fraction of what foreshadowed previous surges.

This rise is not unexpected. There has been a lull in cases in recent months, with covid hospitalizations and deaths reaching new lows. But summers typically see an increase in coronavirus activity, likely because hot weather drives more interactions indoors.

It’s more concerning that hospitalizations are on the rise. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that there has been a 12.5 percent increase in hospital admissions compared with the previous week.

That might sound like a lot, but let’s put the number into context: The number of new covid hospitalizations for the week ending July 29, the most recent week for which data are available, was four times lower than at the same time last year and nearly 17 times lower than during the height of the omicron surge in January 2022.

It’s possible infections and hospitalizations will continue rising, but they are unlikely to approach crisis levels for three reasons. First, all currently circulating strains are offshoots of omicron, and new subvariants — including the most prevalent, EG.5 — aren’t so substantially different that they are expected to cause a dramatic surge, as the original omicron strain did. The current vaccine still has some efficacy against these strains, and the updated booster available this fall should target them even better.

Second, the United States has very high population immunity. CDC analyses show that as of the third quarter of 2022, more than 96 percent of Americans have antibodies to the coronavirus acquired through vaccination, prior infection or both. This immunity wanes over time, but the degree of widespread prior exposure should provide a crucial buffer against the virus spreading like wildfire, as it did earlier in the pandemic.

Third, effective treatment exists to keep most Americans from becoming severely ill. That, combined with the protections from vaccines, should be enough to allow those who have resumed pre-covid activities to continue doing so, even with a relative increase in virus levels.

That said, those who are susceptible to severe outcomes from covid should stay on guard. This includes elderly people and individuals with significant underlying medical conditions; for them, many viruses could land them in the hospital. They should make sure they are up-to-date with coronavirus boosters as well as pneumonia and shingles shots. They should also speak with their physicians about obtaining the newly approved vaccine against the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

How much precaution they should take depends on their specific circumstances and what activities they are willing to forgo. Alexis from California and Keith from Massachusetts have both written to me to ask what they should put on hold during the current uptick. Do they need to cancel long-awaited trips to Europe? Or delay visits from grandchildren? Or stop going to restaurants again?

I’d advise them to discuss with their physicians their individual risk of severe illness from covid and other respiratory illnesses. If it’s high, make some adjustments. For example, go on the trip, but wear a well-fitting N95 or equivalent mask on the plane and in crowded indoor places, such as train stations and theaters. Opt for outdoor rather than indoor dining. Don’t put off seeing your grandchildren, but ask them and their parents to reduce their risk in the days preceding your get-together, and be clear that you wish to cancel plans if anyone develops symptoms.

The risk-benefit calculation will need to be recalibrated if a more significant rise in cases emerges or if a new concerning variant comes on the scene. That hasn’t happened yet. People should recall what they were doing last year at this time and consider that while this summer’s numbers are up compared with the spring, the number of people severely ill from covid is much lower than a year ago.

What we’re experiencing could well become the pattern going forward: lulls in covid infections followed by small surges every few months. Health officials must practice continued vigilance, and individuals must place the risk of covid, including the possibility of developing long covid, into the context of other health risks in their lives.